Research of the Climate Change impact on the Jinsha River Runoff

Weimin Shu, Qiuping Li

Thursday 2 july 2015

12:48 - 12:51h at Central America (level 0)

Themes: (T) Water resources and hydro informatics (WRHI), (ST) Catchment hydrology, Poster pitches

Parallel session: Poster pitches: 11H. WRHI - Catchment

Jinsha River is the largest river in southwest China. It has numerous tributaries crossing the larger range. And in different parts of the basin climate is different. In order to know well the fundamental characteristics of rainfall_temperature_runoff and other hydro-meteorological factors of the Jinsha River_and the weather changes impact on the basin runoff, this paper makes some analysis. By applying statistical methods, respectively analyzes the inter-annual tendency, periodicity and sustainability of precipitation, temperature and runoff on the Jinsha River basin. And non-uniformity, concentration ratio and range of variation are used as indicators to analyze the annual law of precipitation, temperature and runoff in the study area. Besides, the relevance of the climate change and runoff is studied by applying correlation analysis. Based on the above analysis, a basin climate - runoff forecast model is established by threshold regression analysis method, which can be used in forecasting the basin-runoff under climate change in the future. The model provides a new way for the Jinsha River runoff forecast. At the same time, the research results are of great significance to improve the comprehensive water resources utilization on Jinsha River basin.