Development of the Risk Assessment Framework and onTology (RAFT)

Zoran Vojinovic

Chair(s): dr. Sanchez Arcilla

Tuesday 30 june 2015

11:15 - 11:30h at Central America (level 0)

Themes: (T) Special session, (ST) Coasts at threat in Europe

Parallel session: 5H. Special session: Coasts at threat in Europe

Record disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes (or typhoons), tsunamis, widespread flooding and pollution, droughts, extremes of snowfalls and temperatures _ all of which are associated with devastating losses and suffering _ occur almost daily. Out of all, coastal floods are one of the most dangerous and harmful natural hazards affecting urban areas adjacent to shorelines. Rapid urbanisation combined with climate change and poor governance means a significant increase in the risk of local surface flooding coinciding with high water levels in rivers and high tide or storm surges from the sea, posing a greater risk of devastation to coastal communities. The threats posed need to be addressed not just in terms of flood prediction and control, but taking into account governance and socio-economic issues. The present paper discusses the Development of the Risk Assessment Framework and onTology (RAFT) which has been undertaken within the FP7-ENV-2013 EU funded PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project. RAFT draws upon the complexity theory and the use of complex adaptive system (CAS) models as tools to identify root causes of vulnerabilities and their multi-stressors and to analyze risk and the behavior of key actors. The framework also addresses risk and root cause assessment through enhanced FORIN methodology, event prediction, forecast and warning, identification of adaptive structural and non-structural strategies and development of cost-effective risk-reduction plans.

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