Planning support for prior release operation of a multi-purpose reservoir considering real-time hydrological prediction based on the Monte Carlo simulation.

Daisuke Nohara, Tomoharu Hori

Thursday 2 july 2015

9:30 - 9:50h at Europe 1 (level 0)

Themes: (T) Special session, (ST) Adaptation to global changes in water resources management

Parallel session: 10J. Special session - Adaptation to Global Changes in Water Resources Management

Changes in hydrological processes associated with climate change may threaten to reliability of water resources management systems. As reservoirs play an important role in water resources management, sophisticated management of existing reservoirs is considered important for more robust water resources management mitigating such an impact of climate change. As one of integrated reservoir operation methods, prior release operation has been introduced into multi-purpose reservoirs. The operation is expected to bring out enhanced capability of existing reservoirs, as it decreases reservoir’s water level just in advance of flood arrival for flood control based on real-time hydrological predictions while the reservoir can keep its water level as high as possible for water use purposes in no flood conditions. In this study, a method to analyze impacts of prior release operation of a multi-purpose reservoir considering real-time inflow prediction is developed in order to support design of effective prior release operation method. Firstly, inflow prediction sequences for the coming 24 hours are artificially generated with designed error structures. Simulation on short-term reservoir operation for flood control including prior release is then conducted with the generated inflow predictions as a Monte Carlo simulation in order to evaluate the effect of prior release operation with imperfect inflow prediction. Simulation on long-term reservoir operation for water use is also conducted with the storage volume recovered at the end of each simulation on short-term reservoir operation to analyze effects and impacts of prior release on water use operation. The simulation is conducted under the future streamflow conditions as well as the current condition. The proposed method was applied to Kamafusa Reservoir in Japan, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method to support design of adaptive reservoir operation by clarifying the effects and impacts of prior release operation.