An Overall Consequence Model for Ecological Risk Identification, Assessment and Ranking in Daya Bay

Xiao Zhao

Thursday 2 july 2015

12:42 - 12:45h at Europe 1 (level 0)

Themes: (T) Special session, (ST) Oil spill modelling, Poster pitches

Parallel session: Poster pitches: 11J. Special session: Oil Spill Modelling

In the last decades, there have been many major accidents with a number of fatalities, economic losses, damage to the ecological environment and social effect. Attempts have been undertaken to prevent these accidents and to reduce risk to an acceptable level except for more resorting to costly protective systems. This has been done through the identification, assessment and ranking management of major risk contributors, which can be accomplished using quantitative risk assessment (QRA) techniques, and implementation of risk control measures. Consequence assessment is an integral part of risk assessment. This study attempted to consider a major losses for improving the decisive value of risk. Firstly, the consequences were broadly categorized and the losses generally quantified in terms of human health loss, assets loss, ecological loss and social effect loss. Secondly, the quantified assessment of losses was done using a wide variety of mathematical and empirical models. Finally, as an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The major environmental risk sources of research area were identified. Then, the losses and effects of potential explosion accident, liquid leakage release, oil leakage accident and persistent pollutants continuous emission were assessed using the proposed consequence assessment scheme. At last, the overall risk for identified environmental risk sources was assessed and ranked.