Thursday 2 july 2015
17:15 - 17:30h at Europe 2 (level 0)
Themes: (T) Flood risk management and adaptation, (ST) Adaptation measures
Parallel session: 13K. Floodrisk - Adaptation
A target of the research is development of rules for water reservoir operation. Consequently the target has required of solving of next problems. - A choice of model for short-time forecasting of river runoff. - A development of stochastic model of river runoff. - A development of rules for water reservoir operation in conditions of the torrential floods and after that. - A stochastic simulation of artificial long-time hydrological series. - Evaluation of the probabilistic characteristics of water reservoir operation. A earliness of forecasting model of river runoff has been chosen five days (pentad) on the base of analysis respect to observed storm precipitations and forming of dangerous floods. A stochastic model of river runoff and discreteness for the model were chosen on the base of complex analysis of storm precipitations, flood runoff process and interests of water reservoir operation. The model has been developed under type of Markov chain. So the stochastic model is represented by the conditional probabilistic functions of runoff for every pentad in depended on runoff values during previous pentad. The rules for water reservoir operation were developed with help of formula of full probability in respect to water reservoir storages to pentad end with consideration of the forecasting model and stochastic runoff model. A simulation of artificial long-time hydrological series has been made with help of Monte-Carlo technology on the base of analysis in respect to differences of stochastic criterions between the observed and the artificial hydrological series. The long-time hydrological series have helped to analyze all possible scenarios respect to runoff, water reservoir storages and rules for water reservoir operation. The obtained probabilistic characteristics of water reservoir operation allowed do next conclusions: the represented approach to water reservoir operation gives possibility to decrease risk of alarm situation in respect to dangerous floods and of deficit water consumption.