Thursday 2 july 2015
18:00 - 18:10h at Asia (level 0)
Themes: (T) Hydro-environment, (ST) Impacts of pollutants on the water environment, Poster pitches
Parallel session: Poster pitches: 13G. Environment - Impact
The utilization of weather radar has shown the considerable potential for improving the distributed rainfall estimation and prediction of flood. Ciliwung River in Indonesia (476 km2) has notably contributed to the recurrent flooding in Jakarta. C-band weather radar is available for providing rain information in Greater Jakarta. Yet, as single polarimetric radar, the verification of its observation with point rain gauge measurements is indispensable. In this study, the strategies of radar-rainfall calibration and adjustment for extracting radar estimates that is consistent with the ongoing development of real-time flood prediction in Ciliwung River is designed. Furthermore, the sensitivity of rainfall-runoff simulation to the adjusted radar rainfall estimates is investigated. The radar reflectivity is converted to rainfall intensity by Z-R algorithms. Several storm events are selected to evaluate the appropriate Z-R relation by minimizing the mean square error, mean relative error, and fractional standard error between six rain gauges and radar rainfall in off-line scheme. Applying the predefined Z-R relation, the remaining biases in the radar-rainfall estimates are corrected by using bias adjustment factor method calculated as the ratio between the accumulated rain gauge rainfall and accumulated radar-rainfall. The rainfall estimates without adjustment, calibrated radar-rainfall, and adjusted radar rain are introduced to SWAT physically distributed hydrological model in hourly basis. The simulated runoff is evaluated at Katulampa, Depok, and MT. Haryono points representing upstream, middle stream, and downstream outlets. Along with these three inputs, the uncertainties of hydrological model parameter are assessed by using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation/GLUE framework. Through the calibration process, the algorithm with the lowest error for Ciliwung River basin is obtained. The analysis reveals that the different radar adjustment methods account for the variation in the posterior distribution of parameters. The band of uncertainties in the stream flow simulation contributed by radar-rainfall input and parameter uncertainties are evaluated. The results suggest the importance of correction of rainfall estimated from C-band non-polarimetric radar observation. In the final part, the proposed framework on radar-rainfall utilization for real-time flood prediction system in Ciliwung River is discussed.