An Optimization Scheme Of Cropping Pattern Under The Variation Of Water And Climate Condition

Tomoharu Hori, Kazuma Okamoto, Masashi Yohihiro, Daisuke Nohara

Wednesday 1 july 2015

11:45 - 12:00h at Central America (level 0)

Themes: (T) Water resources and hydro informatics (WRHI), (ST) The water-food-energy nexus

Parallel session: 9K. Water resources - Water - food - energy nexus

Food production is one of the key issues to build a sustainable world and water availability plays a crucial role for stable agricultural activities. Because not only the water availability but the various factors such as temperature and radiation affect the crop growth, it is necessary to analyze the total process of growing and yield for designing the agricultural production management. As for water availability, it is indispensable to incorporate the sensitivity of the crop to water stress according to the growth stages because the responses of the crop to too wet and too dry conditions differ in stages of growth such as before and after budbreake, around anthesis and so on. In order to analyze and make the better process for agricultural production, an optimal management model of agricultural crop production is proposed in this study. The model employs a numerical crop growth simulation module based on AquaCrop developed by FAO and optimization scheme for the combination of crop species to be planted. The crop model is calibrated for soy beans, wheat, potato and sugar beet in Shibetsu, Hokkaido Island in Japan and computes the biomass at daily basis based on growing degree day index and transpiration. The optimization module searches the best combination of the crops to maximize the total crop yield or to minimize the yield deficit with penalty coefficient. The solution search is done in heuristic way by using genetic algorithm.