Hydrodynamic System Study Of The Elbe Estuary As A Basis For The Evaluation Of Adaptation Measures For The Climate Change Impacts Mitigation

Suleman Shaikh, Ilya Gershovich, Natasa Manojlovic, Edgar Nehlsen, Peter Fröhle

Monday 29 june 2015

17:39 - 17:42h at North America (level 0)

Themes: (T) Flood risk management and adaptation, (ST) Adaptation measures, Poster pitches

Parallel session: Poster pitch: 2I: FloodRisk - Adaption

Following the latest research outcomes (KLIMZUG-NORD, 2014) and the IPCC report (2013) it is to expect that the Elbe Estuary will be exposed to higher probability and duration of storm surges. Consequently, the existing flood protection infrastructure can be subjected to higher hydrodynamic loads that go beyond their design values. A thorough understanding of the complex estuary system exposed to present and anticipated storm surges is of crucial importance for the responsible authorities to anticipate the potential impacts of the climate change on the flood risk, and develop the adequate adaptation strategies. Here, hydrodynamic models are required to assess the present and future hazards to the stability of the protection structure, their probability and risk of failure. They are coupled with the risk assessment model in order to assess the flood risk before and after the application of flood adaptation strategies. In order to provide a user friendly platform to the responsible authorities, the models are to be automatically connected and executed. This paper introduces a preliminary system study of the Elbe Estuary to assess the hydrodynamic effectiveness of different flood adaptation strategies for present and future conditions. The modelling framework has been implemented utilizing the GIS-based open source modelling platform Kalypso by making use of the Kalypso and TELEMAC-SUITE calculation core for hydrodynamic modelling. For the analysis, the physical borders of the estuary area have been considered (estuary as a whole), without taking into account the political borders, individual preferences of different parties or economic feasibility of the suggested measures. Different flood adaptation scenarios have been defined and applied. Among investigated measures are different modifications of the dike line, polders and an Elbe-Estuary-Barrier in several positions including optimizing barrier times. In the following step, the outcomes of the study will be processed within the holistic risk assessment modelling framework and exposed to the key stakeholders of the Elbe Estuary for further analysis and decision making. The research activities are a part of the ongoing project FP7-PEARL that develops holistic flood risk governance strategies for coastal regions exposed to extreme events. KEYWORDS Climate Change, Elbe Estuary, Operational flood management, Tide and storm surge, Adaption measures